Aigle Noir vs Olympic Star Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.19 expected goals for Aigle Noir and 1.11 for Olympic Star, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives Aigle Noir the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

66.2% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.19 – 1.11

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Aigle Noir home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Aigle Noir to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 28% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.19 goals for Aigle Noir and 1.11 for Olympic Star, a combined 2.30 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 40% and both teams to score at 47%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.

Match result (1X2)

Aigle Noir win38%

Draw28%

Olympic Star win34%

Double chance 1X

66%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

62%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals67%

Over 2.5 goals40%

Over 3.5 goals20%

Both teams to score47%

Correct score

1–113.3%
1–012.0%
0–111.1%
0–010.1%
2–17.9%

Recent form

Aigle Noir

2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Rukinzo · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Royal Vision · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kayanza United · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ngozi City · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vital'O · 2-3 (L)

Olympic Star

2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Panthere Noir · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Never Give Up Academy · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-03T13:45:00.000Z · A vs Muzinga · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bumamuru · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-30T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Rukinzo · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Ligue A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Royal Vision	9	6	3	0	19	21
2	Muzinga	9	5	3	1	6	18
3	Rukinzo	6	4	2	0	11	14
4	Le Messager Ngozi	6	4	1	1	2	13
5	Olympic Star	7	3	3	1	3	12
6	Aigle Noir	8	3	3	2	2	12
7	Ngozi City	8	4	0	4	-2	12
8	Bumamuru	8	3	1	4	1	10
9	Musongati	8	3	1	4	-1	10
10	Vital'O	7	2	3	2	-5	9
11	Inter Star	6	1	3	2	-1	6
12	Flambeau du Centre	7	1	3	3	-2	6
13	Never Give Up Academy	7	1	2	4	-5	5
14	Kayanza United	8	0	5	3	-6	5
15	Young Star	8	1	2	5	-15	5
16	Panthere Noir	6	0	1	5	-7	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.