AIK Stockholm vs BK Hacken Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for AIK Stockholm and 2.32 for BK Hacken, a combined total of 3.57. That distribution gives BK Hacken the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

BK Hacken win

61.4% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.25 – 2.32

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

AIK Stockholm home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
BK Hacken away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates BK Hacken to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 19% / 19% / 61% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for AIK Stockholm and 2.32 for BK Hacken, a combined 3.57 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

AIK Stockholm win19%

Draw19%

BK Hacken win61%

Double chance 1X

39%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

81%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals87%

Over 2.5 goals69%

Over 3.5 goals48%

Both teams to score64%

Correct score

1–29.5%
1–18.1%
0–27.6%
1–37.3%
0–16.5%

Recent form

AIK Stockholm

2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sirius · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-17T15:30:00.000Z · H vs IFK Goteborg · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs IF Brommapojkarna · 5-6 (L)
2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Halmstad · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Mjallby AIF · 1-1 (D)

BK Hacken

2026-10-11T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Orgryte IS · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-02T10:00:00.000Z · A vs IF Elfsborg · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kalmar FF · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Mjallby AIF · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Gais · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Allsvenskan table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Sirius	25	17	4	4	24	55
2	Djurgardens IF	25	15	3	7	29	48
3	Hammarby FF	24	14	4	6	29	46
4	BK Hacken	25	12	9	4	17	45
5	IF Elfsborg	25	11	9	5	13	42
6	Vasteras SK FK	25	11	5	9	-2	38
7	Malmo FF	25	11	4	10	4	37
8	AIK Stockholm	25	10	7	8	-3	37
9	IFK Goteborg	24	10	6	8	-9	36
10	IF Brommapojkarna	25	9	6	10	-4	33
11	Gais	24	8	6	10	5	30
12	Mjallby AIF	24	5	8	11	-12	23
13	Kalmar FF	25	6	4	15	-18	22
14	Degerfors IF	25	5	5	15	-20	20
15	Orgryte IS	25	4	7	14	-25	19
16	Halmstad	25	4	5	16	-28	17

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is BK Hacken win, at 61.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.

A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.