AIK Stockholm vs Hammarby FF Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.19 expected goals for AIK Stockholm and 2.13 for Hammarby FF, a combined total of 3.32. That distribution gives Hammarby FF the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Hammarby FF win

58.8% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.19 – 2.13

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

AIK Stockholm home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Hammarby FF away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hammarby FF to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 21% / 21% / 59% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.19 goals for AIK Stockholm and 2.13 for Hammarby FF, a combined 3.32 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

AIK Stockholm win21%

Draw21%

Hammarby FF win59%

Double chance 1X

41%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

79%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals65%

Over 3.5 goals43%

Both teams to score61%

Correct score

1–29.8%
1–19.2%
0–28.2%
0–17.7%
1–36.9%

Recent form

AIK Stockholm

2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Halmstad · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Mjallby AIF · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Vasteras SK FK · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Malmo FF · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-30T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Hammarby FF · 3-2 (W)

Hammarby FF

2026-10-03T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Vasteras SK FK · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Degerfors IF · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs IF Brommapojkarna · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Orgryte IS · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-30T12:00:00.000Z · A vs AIK Stockholm · 2-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Allsvenskan table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Sirius	23	17	3	3	25	54
2	Djurgardens IF	23	14	2	7	27	44
3	Hammarby FF	23	13	4	6	28	43
4	IF Elfsborg	23	11	7	5	13	40
5	BK Hacken	23	10	9	4	12	39
6	Malmo FF	23	11	3	9	5	36
7	Vasteras SK FK	23	10	5	8	-2	35
8	IFK Goteborg	23	10	5	8	-9	35
9	AIK Stockholm	23	9	6	8	-4	33
10	Gais	23	8	6	9	7	30
11	IF Brommapojkarna	23	8	6	9	-5	30
12	Mjallby AIF	23	5	8	10	-11	23
13	Degerfors IF	23	5	5	13	-15	20
14	Kalmar FF	23	5	4	14	-16	19
15	Orgryte IS	23	3	6	14	-27	15
16	Halmstad	23	3	5	15	-28	14

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Hammarby FF win, at 58.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.

A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.