AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for AIK Stockholm and 1.33 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 3.29. That distribution gives AIK Stockholm the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

AIK Stockholm win

51.8% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.95 – 1.33

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

AIK Stockholm home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Mjallby AIF away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates AIK Stockholm to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 22% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.95 goals for AIK Stockholm and 1.33 for Mjallby AIF, a combined 3.29 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

AIK Stockholm win52%

Draw22%

Mjallby AIF win26%

Double chance 1X

74%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

48%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals64%

Over 3.5 goals42%

Both teams to score63%

Correct score

1–19.7%
2–19.5%
1–07.3%
2–07.1%
1–26.5%

Recent form

AIK Stockholm

2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Halmstad · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Mjallby AIF · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Vasteras SK FK · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Malmo FF · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-30T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Hammarby FF · 3-2 (W)

Mjallby AIF

2026-10-10T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Degerfors IF · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-06T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Trollhättan · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Gais · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · A vs AIK Stockholm · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs BK Hacken · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Allsvenskan table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Sirius	23	17	3	3	25	54
2	Djurgardens IF	23	14	2	7	27	44
3	Hammarby FF	23	13	4	6	28	43
4	BK Hacken	23	10	9	4	12	39
5	IF Elfsborg	22	10	7	5	9	37
6	Vasteras SK FK	23	10	5	8	-2	35
7	IFK Goteborg	23	10	5	8	-9	35
8	Malmo FF	22	10	3	9	4	33
9	AIK Stockholm	23	9	6	8	-4	33
10	Gais	23	8	6	9	7	30
11	IF Brommapojkarna	23	8	6	9	-5	30
12	Mjallby AIF	23	5	8	10	-11	23
13	Degerfors IF	23	5	5	13	-15	20
14	Kalmar FF	22	5	4	13	-15	19
15	Orgryte IS	23	3	6	14	-27	15
16	Halmstad	22	3	5	14	-24	14

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is AIK Stockholm win, at 51.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.

A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.