Airbus UK vs Ammanford AFC Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.81 expected goals for Airbus UK and 0.83 for Ammanford AFC, a combined total of 3.63. That distribution gives Airbus UK the largest share of the 1X2 market at 78%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 78% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Airbus UK win

78.3% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.81 – 0.83

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Airbus UK home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ammanford AFC away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Airbus UK to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 78%, against 78% / 13% / 8% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.81 goals for Airbus UK and 0.83 for Ammanford AFC, a combined 3.63 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Airbus UK win78%

Draw13%

Ammanford AFC win8%

Double chance 1X

92%

Double chance 12

87%

Double chance X2

22%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals88%

Over 2.5 goals70%

Over 3.5 goals49%

Both teams to score53%

Correct score

2–010.4%
3–09.8%
2–18.6%
3–18.0%
1–07.4%

Recent form

Airbus UK

2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Flint Town United · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · A vs GAP Connah S Quay FC · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-11T18:45:00.000Z · H vs The New Saints · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-04T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Briton Ferry · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-31T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Holywell · 6-2 (W)

Ammanford AFC

2026-10-09T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Cambrian & Clydach · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Holywell · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Flint Town United · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Penybont · 1-5 (L)
2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Barry Town · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	The New Saints	13	12	1	0	38	37
2	GAP Connah S Quay FC	13	10	1	2	21	31
3	Penybont	13	9	3	1	14	30
4	Caernarfon Town	13	8	2	3	22	26
5	Colwyn Bay	13	8	1	4	7	25
6	Barry Town	13	8	1	4	5	25
7	Cardiff MET	13	6	3	4	8	21
8	Airbus UK	13	7	0	6	7	21
9	Cambrian & Clydach	13	5	3	5	-12	18
10	Llandudno	13	5	1	7	-1	16
11	Briton Ferry	13	3	3	7	-10	12
12	Haverfordwest County AFC	13	3	1	9	-11	10
13	Ammanford AFC	13	2	3	8	-22	9
14	Flint Town United	13	2	2	9	-13	8
15	Trefelin	13	1	3	9	-23	6
16	Holywell	13	0	2	11	-30	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Airbus UK win, at 78.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.

A 78% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.