The Airfield · Analysis updated 19:37 UTC
Airbus UK vs The New Saints Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.44 expected goals for Airbus UK and 2.37 for The New Saints, a combined total of 3.81. That distribution gives The New Saints the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
The New Saints win
58.2% probability
Expected goals
1.44 – 2.37
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Airbus UK home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
The New Saints away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates The New Saints to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 23% / 19% / 58% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.44 goals for Airbus UK and 2.37 for The New Saints, a combined 3.81 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
42%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.0%
- 1–17.6%
- 1–37.1%
- 2–26.4%
- 0–26.2%
Recent form
Airbus UK
- 2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Flint Town United · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · A vs GAP Connah S Quay FC · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:45:00.000Z · H vs The New Saints · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-04T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Briton Ferry · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-31T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Holywell · 6-2 (W)
The New Saints
- 2026-10-23T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Ammanford AFC · 9-0 (W)
- 2026-10-16T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Airbus UK · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-09T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Holywell · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Cambrian & Clydach · 9-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Trefelin · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is The New Saints win, at 58.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.