Albert Bartlett Stadium · Analysis updated 15:24 UTC
Airdrie United vs Alloa Athletic Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.65 expected goals for Airdrie United and 1.42 for Alloa Athletic, a combined total of 2.07. That distribution gives Alloa Athletic the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Alloa Athletic win
55.8% probability
Expected goals
0.65 – 1.42
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Airdrie United home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Alloa Athletic away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
44%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
83%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–117.9%
- 0–212.7%
- 0–012.6%
- 1–111.6%
- 1–28.3%
Recent form
Airdrie United
- 2026-10-17T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Hamilton Academical · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Hearts U21 · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs East Kilbride · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Montrose · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Berwick Rangers · 7-1 (W)
Alloa Athletic
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ross County · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Gala Fairydean Rovers · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Hibernian U21 · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs East Kilbride · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Airdrie United · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-09T14:00:00.000Z · Airdrie United 1-2 Alloa Athletic (Championship)
- 2026-05-05T18:45:00.000Z · Airdrie United 0-1 Alloa Athletic (Championship)
- 2025-12-09T19:45:00.000Z · Airdrie United 3-2 Alloa Athletic (Challenge Cup)
- 2025-07-26T14:00:00.000Z · Airdrie United 2-3 Alloa Athletic (League Cup)
- 2023-04-01T14:00:00.000Z · Airdrie United 1-0 Alloa Athletic (League One)
- 2023-01-28T15:00:00.000Z · Airdrie United 4-0 Alloa Athletic (League One)
- 2022-10-15T14:00:00.000Z · Airdrie United 0-2 Alloa Athletic (League One)
- 2022-09-23T18:45:00.000Z · Airdrie United 0-1 Alloa Athletic (Challenge Cup)
- 2022-08-20T14:00:00.000Z · Airdrie United 2-0 Alloa Athletic (League One)
- 2022-03-05T15:00:00.000Z · Airdrie United 2-0 Alloa Athletic (League One)
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ross County | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 32 | 28 |
| 2 | Hamilton Academical | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 28 |
| 3 | East Kilbride | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 18 |
| 4 | Montrose | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 16 |
| 5 | Airdrie United | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -5 | 13 |
| 6 | Alloa Athletic | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 12 |
| 7 | Peterhead | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -8 | 10 |
| 8 | Queen of the South | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -22 | 10 |
| 9 | East Fife | 11 | 1 | 6 | 4 | -6 | 9 |
| 10 | Cove Rangers | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Alloa Athletic win, at 55.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.