Albert Bartlett Stadium · Analysis updated 15:49 UTC
Airdrie United vs Berwick Rangers Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.50 expected goals for Airdrie United and 2.25 for Berwick Rangers, a combined total of 4.75. That distribution gives Airdrie United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 85% for over 2.5 goals and 82% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Airdrie United win
45.0% probability
Expected goals
2.50 – 2.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Airdrie United home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Berwick Rangers away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Airdrie United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 19% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.50 goals for Airdrie United and 2.25 for Berwick Rangers, a combined 4.75 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–26.8%
- 2–16.1%
- 3–25.7%
- 1–25.5%
- 2–35.1%
Recent form
Airdrie United
- 2026-10-17T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Hamilton Academical · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Hearts U21 · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs East Kilbride · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Montrose · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Berwick Rangers · 7-1 (W)
Berwick Rangers
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Cowdenbeath · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Airdrie United · 1-7 (L)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Stranraer · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Musselburgh Athletic · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Civil Service Strollers · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Challenge Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clydebank | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 16 |
| 2 | Ross County | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 15 |
| 3 | Airdrie United | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 15 |
| 4 | Cove Rangers | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 15 |
| 5 | Peterhead | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 15 |
| 6 | East Kilbride | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 13 |
| 7 | St. Mirren U21 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 12 |
| 8 | Elgin City | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 12 |
| 9 | Alloa Athletic | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 12 |
| 10 | Hamilton Academical | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 12 |
| 11 | Montrose | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 12 |
| 12 | Celtic II | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 12 |
| 13 | Queen of the South | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 11 |
| 14 | Stirling Albion | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 15 | Aberdeen U21 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 16 | Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 10 |
| 17 | Edinburgh City | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 10 |
| 18 | Berwick Rangers | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 10 |
| 19 | Annan Athletic | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 9 |
| 20 | Formartine United | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 21 | Spartans | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 22 | Kelty Hearts | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 23 | Hearts U21 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -12 | 9 |
| 24 | Stranraer | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 25 | East Fife | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
| 26 | Forfar Athletic | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 27 | Banks O' Dee | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 7 |
| 28 | Dumbarton | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -9 | 7 |
| 29 | Rangers U21 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 6 |
| 30 | Clyde | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 6 |
| 31 | Kilmarnock II | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 32 | Cumbernauld Colts | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -8 | 5 |
| 33 | Clachnacuddin | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 34 | Fraserburgh | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -14 | 4 |
| 35 | Dundee II | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 3 |
| 36 | Dundee United II | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -9 | 3 |
| 37 | Gala Fairydean Rovers | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -14 | 2 |
| 38 | Hibernian U21 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -10 | 1 |
| 39 | Cowdenbeath | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -9 | 0 |
| 40 | Motherwell U21 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -16 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Airdrie United win, at 45.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 82% and over 2.5 goals at 85%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.