Albert Bartlett Stadium · Analysis updated 06:06 UTC
Airdrie United vs Hamilton Academical Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.63 expected goals for Airdrie United and 1.25 for Hamilton Academical, a combined total of 1.88. That distribution gives Hamilton Academical the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 29% for over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Hamilton Academical win
51.5% probability
Expected goals
0.63 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Airdrie United home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hamilton Academical to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 19% / 30% / 52% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.63 goals for Airdrie United and 1.25 for Hamilton Academical, a combined 1.88 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
49%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
81%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–119.2%
- 0–015.3%
- 1–112.0%
- 0–212.0%
- 1–09.6%
Recent form
Airdrie United
- 2026-10-17T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Hamilton Academical · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Hearts U21 · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs East Kilbride · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Montrose · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Berwick Rangers · 7-1 (W)
Hamilton Academical
- 2026-10-03T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Peterhead · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kilmarnock II · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-23T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Cowdenbeath · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Queen of the South · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Spartans · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · Airdrie United 0-4 Hamilton Academical (League One)
- 2025-11-29T15:00:00.000Z · Airdrie United 4-0 Hamilton Academical (FA Cup)
- 2025-03-08T15:00:00.000Z · Airdrie United 2-1 Hamilton Academical (Championship)
- 2024-12-28T15:00:00.000Z · Airdrie United 2-3 Hamilton Academical (Championship)
- 2024-11-02T15:00:00.000Z · Airdrie United 0-4 Hamilton Academical (Championship)
- 2024-08-31T14:00:00.000Z · Airdrie United 2-2 Hamilton Academical (Championship)
- 2023-05-20T16:15:00.000Z · Airdrie United 1-2 Hamilton Academical (Championship)
- 2023-05-17T18:35:00.000Z · Airdrie United 1-0 Hamilton Academical (Championship)
- 2019-07-27T14:00:00.000Z · Airdrie United 2-3 Hamilton Academical (League Cup)
- 2018-07-28T14:00:00.000Z · Airdrie United 1-1 Hamilton Academical (League Cup)
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ross County | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 32 | 28 |
| 2 | Hamilton Academical | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 28 |
| 3 | East Kilbride | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 18 |
| 4 | Montrose | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 16 |
| 5 | Airdrie United | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -5 | 13 |
| 6 | Alloa Athletic | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 12 |
| 7 | Peterhead | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -8 | 10 |
| 8 | Queen of the South | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -22 | 10 |
| 9 | East Fife | 11 | 1 | 6 | 4 | -6 | 9 |
| 10 | Cove Rangers | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Hamilton Academical win, at 51.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 33% and over 2.5 goals at 29%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.