Johan Cruijff Arena · Analysis updated 15:23 UTC
Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.98 expected goals for Ajax and 2.20 for AZ Alkmaar, a combined total of 4.18. That distribution gives AZ Alkmaar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 77% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
64.3% probability
Expected goals
1.98 – 2.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ajax home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
AZ Alkmaar away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–27.3%
- 2–27.3%
- 1–16.7%
- 2–16.6%
- 1–35.4%
Recent form
Ajax
- 2026-10-10T19:00:00.000Z · H vs NEC Nijmegen · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Excelsior · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-15T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Willem II · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Fortuna Sittard · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · H vs PSV Eindhoven · 1-3 (L)
AZ Alkmaar
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Telstar · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Sunderland · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Willem II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Heerenveen · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-29T16:45:00.000Z · H vs GO Ahead Eagles · 5-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-08T13:30:00.000Z · Ajax 1-1 AZ Alkmaar (Eredivisie)
- 2026-01-14T20:00:00.000Z · Ajax 0-6 AZ Alkmaar (KNVB Beker)
- 2025-10-18T19:00:00.000Z · Ajax 0-2 AZ Alkmaar (Eredivisie)
- 2025-03-16T15:45:00.000Z · Ajax 2-2 AZ Alkmaar (Eredivisie)
- 2025-01-14T17:45:00.000Z · Ajax 0-2 AZ Alkmaar (KNVB Beker)
- 2024-12-08T13:30:00.000Z · Ajax 1-2 AZ Alkmaar (Eredivisie)
- 2024-02-25T15:45:00.000Z · Ajax 0-2 AZ Alkmaar (Eredivisie)
- 2023-10-08T12:30:00.000Z · Ajax 1-2 AZ Alkmaar (Eredivisie)
- 2023-05-06T19:00:00.000Z · Ajax 0-0 AZ Alkmaar (Eredivisie)
- 2022-09-18T14:45:00.000Z · Ajax 1-2 AZ Alkmaar (Eredivisie)
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 20 |
| 2 | PSV Eindhoven | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 19 |
| 3 | AZ Alkmaar | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 4 | Twente | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 5 | Ajax | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 15 |
| 6 | Groningen | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| 7 | Fortuna Sittard | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 14 |
| 8 | GO Ahead Eagles | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Excelsior | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | Cambuur | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 8 |
| 13 | Utrecht | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 8 |
| 14 | Sparta Rotterdam | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 15 | Telstar | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 16 | PEC Zwolle | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 4 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 18 | Willem II | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -16 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 77% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.