Johan Cruijff Arena · Referee Jannick van der Laan, Netherlands · Analysis updated 13:43 UTC
Ajax vs Excelsior Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.05 expected goals for Ajax and 2.05 for Excelsior, a combined total of 4.10. That distribution gives Ajax the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 76% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
60.2% probability
Expected goals
2.05 – 2.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ajax home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Excelsior away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 10 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–27.3%
- 1–27.1%
- 2–17.1%
- 1–17.0%
- 2–35.0%
Recent form
Ajax
- 2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · A vs HNK Hajduk Split · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T19:00:00.000Z · H vs NEC Nijmegen · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Excelsior · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-15T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Willem II · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Fortuna Sittard · 5-1 (W)
Excelsior
- 2026-10-16T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Heerenveen · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-11T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Groningen · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Ajax · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T10:15:00.000Z · H vs Utrecht · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-08T16:45:00.000Z · A vs NEC Nijmegen · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · Ajax 2-2 Excelsior (Eredivisie)
- 2026-02-01T11:15:00.000Z · Ajax 2-2 Excelsior (Eredivisie)
- 2025-11-22T17:45:00.000Z · Ajax 1-2 Excelsior (Eredivisie)
- 2024-04-24T19:00:00.000Z · Ajax 2-2 Excelsior (Eredivisie)
- 2023-08-19T14:30:00.000Z · Ajax 2-2 Excelsior (Eredivisie)
- 2023-01-29T13:30:00.000Z · Ajax 4-1 Excelsior (Eredivisie)
- 2022-10-16T18:00:00.000Z · Ajax 7-1 Excelsior (Eredivisie)
- 2019-04-13T16:30:00.000Z · Ajax 6-2 Excelsior (Eredivisie)
- 2018-11-11T13:30:00.000Z · Ajax 7-1 Excelsior (Eredivisie)
- 2018-05-06T12:30:00.000Z · Ajax 2-1 Excelsior (Eredivisie)
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 23 |
| 2 | AZ Alkmaar | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 20 |
| 3 | PSV Eindhoven | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 19 |
| 4 | Ajax | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 18 |
| 5 | Twente | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 17 |
| 6 | Fortuna Sittard | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 15 |
| 7 | Groningen | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14 |
| 8 | Heerenveen | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 9 | GO Ahead Eagles | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Excelsior | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 11 | Utrecht | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 11 |
| 12 | NEC Nijmegen | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 13 | Sparta Rotterdam | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 9 |
| 14 | Cambuur | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 9 |
| 15 | PEC Zwolle | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 7 |
| 16 | Telstar | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -8 | 6 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -9 | 6 |
| 18 | Willem II | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | -17 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 60.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 76% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.