Johan Cruijff Arena · Analysis updated 09:53 UTC
Ajax vs Feyenoord Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Ajax and 1.25 for Feyenoord, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Ajax the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.3% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ajax home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Feyenoord away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ajax to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 25% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for Ajax and 1.25 for Feyenoord, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.0%
- 1–09.6%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–18.0%
- 1–27.5%
Recent form
Ajax
- 2026-10-25T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Sparta Rotterdam · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-22T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Atalanta · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T14:45:00.000Z · A vs Groningen · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · A vs HNK Hajduk Split · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T19:00:00.000Z · H vs NEC Nijmegen · 1-1 (D)
Feyenoord
- 2026-10-25T13:30:00.000Z · A vs PSV Eindhoven · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-21T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Betis · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-17T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Telstar · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-10-14T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Como · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-10T16:45:00.000Z · H vs AZ Alkmaar · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 21 | 24 |
| 2 | Ajax | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 21 |
| 3 | PSV Eindhoven | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 20 |
| 4 | Twente | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 20 |
| 5 | AZ Alkmaar | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 20 |
| 6 | Fortuna Sittard | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 18 |
| 7 | Heerenveen | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 |
| 8 | Groningen | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 9 | GO Ahead Eagles | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 14 |
| 10 | Cambuur | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 12 |
| 11 | Utrecht | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -10 | 12 |
| 12 | NEC Nijmegen | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 13 | Excelsior | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 11 |
| 14 | Sparta Rotterdam | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 9 |
| 15 | PEC Zwolle | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -12 | 8 |
| 16 | Telstar | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 6 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 6 |
| 18 | Willem II | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | -22 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.