Johan Cruijff Arena · Referee Serdar Gozubuyuk, Netherlands · Analysis updated 19:45 UTC
Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.22 expected goals for Ajax and 0.78 for NEC Nijmegen, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Ajax the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ajax win
70.2% probability
Expected goals
2.22 – 0.78
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ajax home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
NEC Nijmegen away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
30%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–012.3%
- 1–011.1%
- 2–19.6%
- 3–09.1%
- 1–18.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.4%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.40 (model 51.7% vs market 38.9%, edge +12.8 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.40 | 38.9% | 51.7% | 1.93 | +12.8 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 3.40 | 28.0% | 29.8% | 3.36 | +1.8 |
| Match result | Away | 8.00 | 11.4% | 11.7% | 8.55 | +0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.08 | 88.3% | 88.3% | 1.13 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Home | 1.30 | 70.3% | 70.2% | 1.42 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 5.00 | 18.3% | 18.1% | 5.52 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.14 | 83.7% | 81.9% | 1.22 | -1.8 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.53 | 61.1% | 48.3% | 2.07 | -12.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Ajax
- 2026-10-10T19:00:00.000Z · H vs NEC Nijmegen · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Excelsior · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-15T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Willem II · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Fortuna Sittard · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · H vs PSV Eindhoven · 1-3 (L)
NEC Nijmegen
- 2026-10-10T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Ajax · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T14:45:00.000Z · H vs GO Ahead Eagles · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Juventus · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Cambuur · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-08T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Excelsior · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-21T20:00:00.000Z · Ajax 1-1 NEC Nijmegen (Eredivisie)
- 2025-12-20T19:00:00.000Z · Ajax 2-2 NEC Nijmegen (Eredivisie)
- 2025-05-11T14:45:00.000Z · Ajax 0-3 NEC Nijmegen (Eredivisie)
- 2024-12-01T15:45:00.000Z · Ajax 2-1 NEC Nijmegen (Eredivisie)
- 2024-02-18T13:30:00.000Z · Ajax 2-2 NEC Nijmegen (Eredivisie)
- 2023-12-03T13:30:00.000Z · Ajax 2-1 NEC Nijmegen (Eredivisie)
- 2023-03-05T15:45:00.000Z · Ajax 1-0 NEC Nijmegen (Eredivisie)
- 2023-01-08T13:30:00.000Z · Ajax 1-1 NEC Nijmegen (Eredivisie)
- 2022-04-23T14:30:00.000Z · Ajax 1-0 NEC Nijmegen (Eredivisie)
- 2021-08-14T19:00:00.000Z · Ajax 5-0 NEC Nijmegen (Eredivisie)
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 20 |
| 2 | PSV Eindhoven | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 19 |
| 3 | AZ Alkmaar | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 4 | Twente | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 5 | Ajax | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 15 |
| 6 | Groningen | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| 7 | Fortuna Sittard | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 14 |
| 8 | GO Ahead Eagles | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Excelsior | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | Cambuur | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 8 |
| 13 | Utrecht | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 8 |
| 14 | Sparta Rotterdam | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 15 | Telstar | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 16 | PEC Zwolle | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 4 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 18 | Willem II | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -16 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ajax win, at 70.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.