Johan Cruijff Arena · Referee Allard Lindhout, Netherlands · Analysis updated 13:28 UTC
Ajax vs Willem II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.48 expected goals for Ajax and 0.87 for Willem II, a combined total of 4.35. That distribution gives Ajax the largest share of the 1X2 market at 85%, with the draw at 10%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 80% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 85% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ajax win
85.0% probability
Expected goals
3.48 – 0.87
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ajax home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Willem II away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ajax to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 85%, against 85% / 10% / 6% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.48 goals for Ajax and 0.87 for Willem II, a combined 4.35 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
95%
Double chance 12
91%
Double chance X2
15%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–09.1%
- 3–17.9%
- 4–07.9%
- 2–07.8%
- 4–16.9%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 6.0%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — Yes at 1.75 (model 55.8% vs market 52.7%, edge +3.1 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | YesValue | 1.75 | 52.7% | 55.8% | 1.79 | +3.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.02 | 94.0% | 94.5% | 1.06 | +0.5 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 6.50 | 14.7% | 15.0% | 6.67 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 10.00 | 9.4% | 9.5% | 10.53 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 1.11 | 85.0% | 85.0% | 1.18 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 17.00 | 5.6% | 5.5% | 18.18 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.05 | 91.3% | 90.5% | 1.10 | -0.8 |
| Both teams to score | No | 1.95 | 47.3% | 44.2% | 2.26 | -3.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Ajax
- 2026-10-10T19:00:00.000Z · H vs NEC Nijmegen · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Excelsior · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-15T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Willem II · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Fortuna Sittard · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · H vs PSV Eindhoven · 1-3 (L)
Willem II
- 2026-10-11T10:15:00.000Z · A vs Utrecht · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Fortuna Sittard · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-15T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Ajax · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs AZ Alkmaar · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Excelsior · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 20 |
| 2 | PSV Eindhoven | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 19 |
| 3 | AZ Alkmaar | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 4 | Twente | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 5 | Ajax | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 15 |
| 6 | Groningen | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| 7 | Fortuna Sittard | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 14 |
| 8 | GO Ahead Eagles | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Excelsior | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | Cambuur | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 8 |
| 13 | Utrecht | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 8 |
| 14 | Sparta Rotterdam | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 15 | Telstar | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 16 | PEC Zwolle | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 4 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 18 | Willem II | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -16 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ajax win, at 85.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 80%.
A 85% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.