Sportcomplex De Toekomst · Referee S. Droge · Analysis updated 15:48 UTC
Ajax W vs AZ W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.87 expected goals for Ajax W and 1.03 for AZ W, a combined total of 3.91. That distribution gives Ajax W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 75%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 75% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ajax W win
75.0% probability
Expected goals
2.87 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ajax W home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
AZ W away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
89%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
25%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.6%
- 2–08.3%
- 3–18.2%
- 3–07.9%
- 1–16.0%
Recent form
Ajax W
- 2026-10-18T10:15:00.000Z · H vs PSV/Eindhoven W · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-04T14:45:00.000Z · A vs Feyenoord W · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-30T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Aktobe W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · H vs ADO Den Haag W · 7-1 (W)
- 2026-09-23T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Aktobe W · 8-0 (W)
AZ W
- 2026-10-04T14:45:00.000Z · A vs De Graafschap W · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T10:15:00.000Z · H vs Twente W · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Ajax W · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:45:00.000Z · H vs PSV/Eindhoven W · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Utrecht W · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · Ajax W 5-1 AZ W (Eredivisie Women)
- 2026-05-08T18:00:00.000Z · Ajax W 3-1 AZ W (Eredivisie Women)
- 2025-09-28T10:15:00.000Z · Ajax W 0-0 AZ W (Eredivisie Women)
- 2025-01-19T11:15:00.000Z · Ajax W 4-2 AZ W (Eredivisie Women)
- 2024-10-06T10:15:00.000Z · Ajax W 2-1 AZ W (Eredivisie Women)
- 2024-04-25T12:00:00.000Z · Ajax W 3-0 AZ W (Eredivisie Women)
- 2023-11-26T11:15:00.000Z · Ajax W 2-1 AZ W (Eredivisie Women)
Eredivisie Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Twente W | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 26 | 22 |
| 2 | Ajax W | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 18 |
| 3 | PSV/Eindhoven W | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 16 |
| 4 | De Graafschap W | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 12 |
| 5 | AZ W | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 12 |
| 6 | Heerenveen W | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 7 | PEC Zwolle W | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 8 | ADO Den Haag W | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -14 | 7 |
| 9 | Feyenoord W | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -12 | 6 |
| 10 | Utrecht W | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ajax W win, at 75.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.