Sportcomplex De Toekomst · Analysis updated 01:37 UTC
Ajax W vs De Graafschap W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.29 expected goals for Ajax W and 1.15 for De Graafschap W, a combined total of 3.44. That distribution gives Ajax W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ajax W win
63.0% probability
Expected goals
2.29 – 1.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ajax W home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
De Graafschap W away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ajax W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 63% / 19% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.29 goals for Ajax W and 1.15 for De Graafschap W, a combined 3.44 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
37%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.7%
- 1–18.5%
- 2–08.4%
- 3–17.4%
- 1–07.4%
Recent form
Ajax W
- 2026-09-23T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Aktobe W · 8-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs AZ W · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:45:00.000Z · A vs Heerenveen W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T14:45:00.000Z · H vs De Graafschap W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-02T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Madrid W · 1-2 (L)
De Graafschap W
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs PSV/Eindhoven W · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-20T10:15:00.000Z · A vs PEC Zwolle W · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:45:00.000Z · H vs ADO Den Haag W · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T14:45:00.000Z · A vs Ajax W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-23T10:15:00.000Z · H vs Heerenveen W · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Eredivisie Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Twente W | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 26 | 21 |
| 2 | Ajax W | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 18 |
| 3 | PSV/Eindhoven W | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 16 |
| 4 | De Graafschap W | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 12 |
| 5 | AZ W | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | -7 | 12 |
| 6 | Heerenveen W | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 7 | PEC Zwolle W | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 8 | ADO Den Haag W | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -13 | 7 |
| 9 | Feyenoord W | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -12 | 6 |
| 10 | Utrecht W | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ajax W win, at 63.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.