Brøndby IF's anlæg · Referee I. Kulmala · Analysis updated 07:07 UTC
Ajax W vs Kolos Kovalivka W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.37 expected goals for Ajax W and 0.96 for Kolos Kovalivka W, a combined total of 3.33. That distribution gives Ajax W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ajax W win
68.6% probability
Expected goals
2.37 – 0.96
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ajax W home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kolos Kovalivka W away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ajax W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 69%, against 69% / 18% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.37 goals for Ajax W and 0.96 for Kolos Kovalivka W, a combined 3.33 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
31%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.0%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–08.5%
- 1–18.2%
- 3–07.9%
Recent form
Ajax W
- 2026-09-23T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Aktobe W · 8-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs AZ W · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:45:00.000Z · A vs Heerenveen W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T14:45:00.000Z · H vs De Graafschap W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-02T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Madrid W · 1-2 (L)
Kolos Kovalivka W
- 2026-08-26T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Torreense W · 1-6 (L)
- 2025-09-17T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Vllaznia W · 0-2 (L)
- 2025-09-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Vllaznia W · 0-2 (L)
- 2024-09-07T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Brøndby W · 1-2 (L)
- 2024-09-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Ajax W · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2024-09-04T12:00:00.000Z · Ajax W 4-1 Kolos Kovalivka W (UEFA Champions League Women)
UEFA Champions League Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona W | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 6 |
| 2 | Lyon W | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 4 |
| 3 | Paris Saint Germain W | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 |
| 4 | Bayern Munich W | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 5 | Arsenal W | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Inter Milano W | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | Chelsea W | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | Køge W | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| 9 | Juventus W | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | SL Benfica W | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 11 | Manchester City W | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 12 | Real Madrid W | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 13 | Austria Wien W | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 14 | Paris FC W | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 1 |
| 15 | OH Leuven W | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -5 | 1 |
| 16 | Roma W | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -6 | 1 |
| 17 | Häcken W | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 18 | Servette Chênois W | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -12 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ajax W win, at 68.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.