· Analysis updated 10:52 UTC
Ajim Djerba vs EM Mahdia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Ajim Djerba and 0.95 for EM Mahdia, a combined total of 2.20. That distribution gives Ajim Djerba the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
71.9% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ajim Djerba home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
EM Mahdia away threat
Scored in 0 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ajim Djerba to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 29% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Ajim Djerba and 0.95 for EM Mahdia, a combined 2.20 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.9%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–011.1%
- 0–110.5%
- 2–08.7%
Recent form
Ajim Djerba
- 2026-04-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Jeunesse Sportive Omrane · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-03-23T12:30:00.000Z · H vs EM Mahdia · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-02-07T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Djelma · 2-0 (W)
- 2024-02-25T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Hamma · 1-2 (L)
- 2019-01-30T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Bouselem · 1-2 (L)
EM Mahdia
- 2026-09-10T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Ksour Essef · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-05-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Kerkennah · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-05-01T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Menzel Bourguiba · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-27T14:30:00.000Z · H vs US Tataouine · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Mégrine · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 71.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.