· Analysis updated 12:09 UTC
Ajim Djerba vs Jeunesse Sportive Omrane Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Ajim Djerba and 0.98 for Jeunesse Sportive Omrane, a combined total of 2.23. That distribution gives Ajim Djerba the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
71.0% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 0.98
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ajim Djerba home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ajim Djerba to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 29% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Ajim Djerba and 0.98 for Jeunesse Sportive Omrane, a combined 2.23 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.4%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–010.8%
- 0–110.6%
- 2–08.4%
Recent form
Ajim Djerba
- 2026-04-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Jeunesse Sportive Omrane · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-03-23T12:30:00.000Z · H vs EM Mahdia · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-02-07T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Djelma · 2-0 (W)
- 2024-02-25T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Hamma · 1-2 (L)
- 2019-01-30T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Bouselem · 1-2 (L)
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
- 2026-10-23T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Olympique Béja · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-18T13:30:00.000Z · A vs CS Hammam-Lif · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T13:30:00.000Z · H vs AS Marsa · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs ES Metlaoui · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · A vs ES Sahel · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 71.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.