Ajka Sportcentrum · Analysis updated 13:41 UTC
Ajka vs Csakvar Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.28 expected goals for Ajka and 1.13 for Csakvar, a combined total of 3.40. That distribution gives Ajka the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ajka win
63.2% probability
Expected goals
2.28 – 1.13
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ajka home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Csakvar away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ajka to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 63% / 19% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.28 goals for Ajka and 1.13 for Csakvar, a combined 3.40 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
37%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.7%
- 2–08.6%
- 1–18.5%
- 1–07.6%
- 3–17.4%
Recent form
Ajka
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Tiszakecske FC · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-10-02T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Komárno · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Csakvar · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs BVSC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Soroksar · 0-3 (L)
Csakvar
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Ajka · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Gyirmot SE · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Szeged 2011 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-30T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Soroksar · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-08-23T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Kazincbarcikai · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
NB II table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Soroksar | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 20 |
| 2 | Kecskeméti TE | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 20 |
| 3 | Tiszakecske FC | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 19 |
| 4 | Kazincbarcikai | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 16 |
| 5 | Gyirmot SE | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 16 |
| 6 | Ajka | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 7 | Mezokovesd-zsory | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| 8 | Fehérvár FC | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 12 |
| 9 | Karcag SE | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Szentlőrinc SE | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 11 | Diosgyori VTK | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 11 |
| 12 | Nagykanizsai ULE | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -4 | 9 |
| 13 | BVSC | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 7 |
| 14 | Szeged 2011 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 15 | Csakvar | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -12 | 4 |
| 16 | Kozarmisleny FC | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -12 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ajka win, at 63.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.