Hungary · NB II · Regular Season - 315:30
AjkaDDW

11

Saturday, 8 August 2026

Karcag SEDDD

Ajka Sportcentrum · Analysis updated 00:46 UTC

Ajka vs Karcag SE Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.44 expected goals for Ajka and 0.96 for Karcag SE, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Ajka the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws roughly 52% of the time.

Model pick

Ajka to Win

48.0% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.44 – 0.96

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Ajka win48%
Draw27%
Karcag SE win25%

Double chance 1X

75%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

52%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals69%
Over 2.5 goals43%
Over 3.5 goals22%
Both teams to score47%

Correct score

  • 1–013.1%
  • 1–112.6%
  • 2–09.4%
  • 0–09.1%
  • 2–19.0%

Why the model likes this

  • Ajka home form

    10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.

  • Karcag SE away threat

    Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Ajka to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 27% / 25% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 1.44 goals for Ajka and 0.96 for Karcag SE, a combined 2.40 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Recent form

Ajka

  • 2026-08-15T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Diosgyori VTK · 1-1 (D)
  • 2026-08-08T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Karcag SE · 1-1 (D)
  • 2026-07-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Kecskeméti TE · 3-1 (W)
  • 2026-07-18T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Csakvar · 0-2 (L)
  • 2026-07-11T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Gyirmot SE · 0-2 (L)

Karcag SE

  • 2026-08-08T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Ajka · 1-1 (D)
  • 2026-08-02T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Soroksar · 2-2 (D)
  • 2026-07-26T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Szentlőrinc SE · 0-0 (D)
  • 2026-05-17T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Kozarmisleny FC · 1-2 (L)
  • 2026-05-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Tiszakecske FC · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Soroksar4310610
2Gyirmot SE4310410
3Kazincbarcikai422038
4Kecskeméti TE421107
5Fehérvár FC420226
6Ajka312025
7Tiszakecske FC312015
8Szentlőrinc SE211014
9Diosgyori VTK3111-34
10Karcag SE303003
11Csakvar3102-13
12Mezokovesd-zsory3102-13
13Nagykanizsai ULE4103-23
14Szeged 20113012-21
15BVSC3012-21
16Kozarmisleny FC4004-80

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.