Ajman Stadium · Referee A. Jamali · Analysis updated 14:11 UTC
Ajman vs Al Nasr Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.99 expected goals for Ajman and 1.61 for Al Nasr, a combined total of 3.60. That distribution gives Ajman the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ajman win
46.9% probability
Expected goals
1.99 – 1.61
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ajman home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Al Nasr away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ajman to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 22% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.99 goals for Ajman and 1.61 for Al Nasr, a combined 3.60 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.7%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–27.0%
- 2–27.0%
- 3–15.8%
Recent form
Ajman
- 2026-09-19T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Sharjah FC · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-11T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Al-Ittihad Kalba · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:45:00.000Z · A vs Al Nasr · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T13:55:00.000Z · A vs Al-Jazira · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hatta SC · 4-3 (W)
Al Nasr
- 2026-10-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Riffa · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-08T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Hatta SC · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-02T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Dubai United · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-10T13:40:00.000Z · A vs Al-Jazira · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Jazira | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 13 |
| 2 | Al Ain | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 4 | Al-Wasl FC | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 10 |
| 5 | Ajman | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 6 | Al Wahda FC | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 7 | Sharjah FC | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 9 |
| 8 | Dubai United | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 9 | Al Nasr | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 10 | Al-Ittihad Kalba | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 4 |
| 11 | Khorfakkan | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 4 |
| 12 | Al-Dhafra | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 3 |
| 13 | Hatta SC | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 3 |
| 14 | Baniyas SC | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ajman win, at 46.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.