· Analysis updated 01:42 UTC
Akademik Svishtov vs Bdin Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.94 expected goals for Akademik Svishtov and 1.08 for Bdin, a combined total of 4.02. That distribution gives Akademik Svishtov the largest share of the 1X2 market at 75%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 75% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Akademik Svishtov win
75.0% probability
Expected goals
2.94 – 1.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Akademik Svishtov home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bdin away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
89%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
25%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.4%
- 3–18.2%
- 2–07.7%
- 3–07.6%
- 4–16.0%
Recent form
Akademik Svishtov
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sevlievo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Slavia Sofia · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Chavdar Troyan · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Benkovski Isperih · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Pavlikeni · 2-1 (W)
Bdin
- 2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Montana · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Chavdar Troyan · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs OFK Levski · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Pavlikeni · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Spartak Pleven II · 4-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-28T13:00:00.000Z · Akademik Svishtov 1-0 Bdin (Third League - Northwest)
- 2025-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · Akademik Svishtov 2-1 Bdin (Third League - Northwest)
- 2025-03-29T13:00:00.000Z · Akademik Svishtov 3-1 Bdin (Third League - Northwest)
- 2024-09-28T14:00:00.000Z · Akademik Svishtov 0-2 Bdin (Third League - Northwest)
- 2023-03-11T12:30:00.000Z · Akademik Svishtov 1-3 Bdin (Third League - Northwest)
- 2022-08-20T15:00:00.000Z · Akademik Svishtov 0-5 Bdin (Third League - Northwest)
- 2022-03-12T12:30:00.000Z · Akademik Svishtov 0-2 Bdin (Third League - Northwest)
- 2021-08-28T15:00:00.000Z · Akademik Svishtov 0-3 Bdin (Third League - Northwest)
- 2021-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · Akademik Svishtov 0-0 Bdin (Third League - Northwest)
- 2020-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · Akademik Svishtov 0-1 Bdin (Third League - Northwest)
Third League - Northwest table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Akademik Svishtov | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 21 |
| 2 | Lokomotiv Mezdra | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 16 |
| 3 | Yantra Polski Trambesh | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 13 |
| 4 | Kom Berkovitsa | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | Partizan | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 6 | Chavdar Troyan | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 11 |
| 7 | Etar VT II | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 10 |
| 8 | Sevlievo | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 9 | Pavlikeni | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -4 | 9 |
| 10 | Bdin | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 9 |
| 11 | OFK Levski | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 12 | Spartak Pleven II | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -13 | 6 |
| 13 | Juventus Malchika | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -16 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Akademik Svishtov win, at 75.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.