· Analysis updated 15:10 UTC
Akademik Svishtov vs Juventus Malchika Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.60 expected goals for Akademik Svishtov and 0.55 for Juventus Malchika, a combined total of 4.15. That distribution gives Akademik Svishtov the largest share of the 1X2 market at 91%, with the draw at 7%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 91% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Akademik Svishtov win
90.7% probability
Expected goals
3.60 – 0.55
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Akademik Svishtov home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Juventus Malchika away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Akademik Svishtov to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 91%, against 91% / 7% / 3% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.60 goals for Akademik Svishtov and 0.55 for Juventus Malchika, a combined 4.15 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
97%
Double chance 12
93%
Double chance X2
9%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–012.3%
- 4–011.1%
- 2–010.2%
- 5–08.0%
- 3–16.7%
Recent form
Akademik Svishtov
- 2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Etar VT II · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-22T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Partizan · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-06-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Levski Sofia · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-05-23T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Kom Berkovitsa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-16T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv Mezdra · 1-2 (L)
Juventus Malchika
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Partizan · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-23T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Litex · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-05-16T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Partizan · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-05-09T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Akademik Svishtov · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-02T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Bdin · 2-8 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Third League - Northwest table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Akademik Svishtov | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 17 |
| 2 | Lokomotiv Mezdra | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 13 |
| 3 | Yantra Polski Trambesh | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 12 |
| 4 | Partizan | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 12 |
| 5 | Kom Berkovitsa | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 6 | Sevlievo | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 7 | Bdin | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 8 | Chavdar Troyan | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 9 | Etar VT II | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 7 |
| 10 | OFK Levski | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 11 | Spartak Pleven II | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -12 | 5 |
| 12 | Pavlikeni | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -8 | 3 |
| 13 | Juventus Malchika | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -16 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Akademik Svishtov win, at 90.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.
A 91% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.