· Analysis updated 14:21 UTC
Akademik Svishtov vs Juventus Malchika Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.65 expected goals for Akademik Svishtov and 0.57 for Juventus Malchika, a combined total of 4.21. That distribution gives Akademik Svishtov the largest share of the 1X2 market at 91%, with the draw at 7%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 91% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Akademik Svishtov win
90.8% probability
Expected goals
3.65 – 0.57
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Akademik Svishtov home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Akademik Svishtov to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 91%, against 91% / 7% / 3% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.65 goals for Akademik Svishtov and 0.57 for Juventus Malchika, a combined 4.21 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 78% and both teams to score at 42%, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
97%
Double chance 12
93%
Double chance X2
9%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–012.0%
- 4–010.9%
- 2–09.8%
- 5–07.9%
- 3–16.8%
Recent form
Akademik Svishtov
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sevlievo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Slavia Sofia · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Chavdar Troyan · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Benkovski Isperih · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Pavlikeni · 2-1 (W)
Juventus Malchika
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv Mezdra · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Yantra Polski Trambesh · 0-7 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Etar VT II · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Partizan · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-23T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Litex · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Third League - Northwest table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Akademik Svishtov | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 21 |
| 2 | Lokomotiv Mezdra | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 16 |
| 3 | Yantra Polski Trambesh | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 13 |
| 4 | Kom Berkovitsa | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | Partizan | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 6 | Chavdar Troyan | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 11 |
| 7 | Etar VT II | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 10 |
| 8 | Sevlievo | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 9 | Pavlikeni | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -4 | 9 |
| 10 | Bdin | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 9 |
| 11 | OFK Levski | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 12 | Spartak Pleven II | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -13 | 6 |
| 13 | Juventus Malchika | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -16 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Akademik Svishtov win, at 90.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.
A 91% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.