· Analysis updated 00:22 UTC
Akademik Svishtov vs Troyan 2025 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.22 expected goals for Akademik Svishtov and 0.38 for Troyan 2025, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Akademik Svishtov the largest share of the 1X2 market at 80%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 28% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 80% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Akademik Svishtov win
80.1% probability
Expected goals
2.22 – 0.38
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Akademik Svishtov home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Troyan 2025 away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Akademik Svishtov to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 80%, against 80% / 15% / 5% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.22 goals for Akademik Svishtov and 0.38 for Troyan 2025, a combined 2.60 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
95%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
20%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–018.4%
- 1–016.5%
- 3–013.6%
- 4–07.6%
- 0–07.4%
Recent form
Akademik Svishtov
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sevlievo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Slavia Sofia · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Chavdar Troyan · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Benkovski Isperih · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Pavlikeni · 2-1 (W)
Troyan 2025
- 2026-05-23T15:00:00.000Z · A vs OFK Levski · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-05-16T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Yantra Polski Trambesh · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-09T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Pavlikeni · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kom Berkovitsa · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotiv Mezdra · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-14T13:00:00.000Z · Akademik Svishtov 4-1 Troyan 2025 (Third League - Northwest)
- 2025-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · Akademik Svishtov 1-0 Troyan 2025 (Third League - Northwest)
Third League - Northwest table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Akademik Svishtov | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 21 |
| 2 | Lokomotiv Mezdra | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 16 |
| 3 | Yantra Polski Trambesh | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 13 |
| 4 | Kom Berkovitsa | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | Partizan | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 6 | Chavdar Troyan | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 11 |
| 7 | Etar VT II | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 10 |
| 8 | Sevlievo | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 9 | Pavlikeni | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -4 | 9 |
| 10 | Bdin | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 9 |
| 11 | OFK Levski | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 12 | Spartak Pleven II | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -13 | 6 |
| 13 | Juventus Malchika | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -16 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Akademik Svishtov win, at 80.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 28% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 80% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.