Akademiya Konoplev U20 vs Rodina Moscow U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.81 expected goals for Akademiya Konoplev U20 and 2.02 for Rodina Moscow U19, a combined total of 3.83. That distribution gives Rodina Moscow U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

64.6% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.81 – 2.02

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Akademiya Konoplev U20 home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rodina Moscow U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 35% / 21% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.81 goals for Akademiya Konoplev U20 and 2.02 for Rodina Moscow U19, a combined 3.83 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 74% and both teams to score at 73%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.

Match result (1X2)

Akademiya Konoplev U20 win35%

Draw21%

Rodina Moscow U19 win44%

Double chance 1X

57%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

65%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals90%

Over 2.5 goals74%

Over 3.5 goals53%

Both teams to score73%

Correct score

1–28.0%
1–17.9%
2–27.3%
2–17.2%
1–35.4%

Recent form

Akademiya Konoplev U20

2026-10-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Dynamo Makhachkala U19 · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-09T12:00:00.000Z · A vs CSKA Moskva U19 · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Rubin Kazan U20 · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-11T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Fakel U19 · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Ural U20 · 3-0 (W)

Rodina Moscow U19

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Youth Championship table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	CSKA Moskva U19	27	21	2	4	53	65
2	Zenit U19	27	19	3	5	45	60
3	Krasnodar U19	27	18	3	6	38	57
4	Rodina Moscow U19	27	17	3	7	32	54
5	Lokomotiv Moskva U19	27	15	5	7	20	50
6	Akademiya Konoplev U20	27	14	5	8	12	47
7	Almaz Antey U19	27	13	5	9	-5	44
8	Spartak Moskva U19	27	7	11	9	-6	32
9	Rostov U19	27	9	5	13	-9	32
10	Dinamo Moskva U19	27	9	4	14	-8	31
11	Dynamo Makhachkala U19	27	8	4	15	-24	28
12	Chertanovo U20	27	7	5	15	-25	26
13	Ural U20	27	7	4	16	-26	25
14	Nizhny Novgorod U19	27	6	4	17	-40	22
15	Rubin Kazan U20	27	6	3	18	-30	21
16	Fakel U19	27	5	4	18	-27	19

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.

A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.