· Analysis updated 22:40 UTC
Akademiya Ontustik vs Ekibastuz Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.08 expected goals for Akademiya Ontustik and 0.98 for Ekibastuz, a combined total of 3.06. That distribution gives Akademiya Ontustik the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Akademiya Ontustik win
62.8% probability
Expected goals
2.08 – 0.98
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Akademiya Ontustik home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ekibastuz away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Akademiya Ontustik to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 63% / 20% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.08 goals for Akademiya Ontustik and 0.98 for Ekibastuz, a combined 3.06 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
37%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.2%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–09.8%
- 1–19.5%
- 3–07.0%
Recent form
Akademiya Ontustik
- 2026-10-22T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Turan Turkistan · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-15T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Arys · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-08T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Shakhter Karagandy · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Jaiyq · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-10T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Yelimay Semey 2 · 1-0 (W)
Ekibastuz
- 2026-10-09T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Khan Tengri · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-18T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Astana II · 1-7 (L)
- 2026-09-11T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Tobol 2 · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Arys · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-27T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Turan Turkistan · 2-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shakhter Karagandy | 26 | 21 | 2 | 3 | 56 | 65 |
| 2 | Sport Academy Kairat | 26 | 19 | 6 | 1 | 57 | 63 |
| 3 | Turan Turkistan | 26 | 18 | 3 | 5 | 33 | 57 |
| 4 | Akademiya Ontustik | 26 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 4 | 43 |
| 5 | Astana II | 26 | 12 | 3 | 11 | 2 | 39 |
| 6 | Taraz | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 37 |
| 7 | Arys | 26 | 10 | 3 | 13 | -11 | 33 |
| 8 | Jaiyq | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | -9 | 32 |
| 9 | Khan Tengri | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | -13 | 32 |
| 10 | Kaspij Aktau 2 | 26 | 8 | 4 | 14 | -12 | 28 |
| 11 | Ekibastuz | 26 | 7 | 6 | 13 | -25 | 27 |
| 12 | Aktobe Jas | 26 | 6 | 6 | 14 | -35 | 24 |
| 13 | Tobol 2 | 26 | 6 | 5 | 15 | -13 | 23 |
| 14 | Yelimay Semey 2 | 26 | 3 | 3 | 20 | -38 | 12 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Akademiya Ontustik win, at 62.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.