Akhmat-Arena · Referee Rafael Shafeev, Russia · Analysis updated 14:39 UTC
Akhmat vs Dinamo Makhachkala Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.85 expected goals for Akhmat and 1.88 for Dinamo Makhachkala, a combined total of 3.73. That distribution gives Dinamo Makhachkala the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
61.2% probability
Expected goals
1.85 – 1.88
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Akhmat home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Dinamo Makhachkala away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dinamo Makhachkala to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 39% / 22% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.85 goals for Akhmat and 1.88 for Dinamo Makhachkala, a combined 3.73 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.4%
- 1–27.8%
- 2–17.7%
- 2–27.3%
- 1–34.9%
Recent form
Akhmat
- 2026-09-17T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Akron · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Makhachkala · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-07T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Rubin · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-03T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Dynamo · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Krylia Sovetov · 3-3 (D)
Dinamo Makhachkala
- 2026-10-10T10:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Orenburg · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Leningradets · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-17T17:45:00.000Z · H vs CSKA Moscow · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Akhmat · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:15:00.000Z · H vs Rodina Moskva · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dynamo | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 25 |
| 2 | Zenit | 11 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 24 |
| 3 | FC Krasnodar | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 23 |
| 4 | Spartak Moscow | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 23 |
| 5 | CSKA Moscow | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 22 |
| 6 | FC Orenburg | 12 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 16 |
| 7 | Krylia Sovetov | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 8 | Baltika | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 14 |
| 9 | Dinamo Makhachkala | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 13 |
| 10 | FC Rostov | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 12 |
| 11 | Rubin | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | -6 | 12 |
| 12 | Akron | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | -6 | 12 |
| 13 | Lokomotiv | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 11 |
| 14 | Akhmat | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -2 | 11 |
| 15 | Rodina Moskva | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -14 | 9 |
| 16 | Fakel | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | -12 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 61.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.