Akhmat-Arena · Referee E. Kukulyak · Analysis updated 16:52 UTC
Akhmat vs Dynamo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.90 expected goals for Akhmat and 1.33 for Dynamo, a combined total of 2.23. That distribution gives Dynamo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Dynamo win
46.5% probability
Expected goals
0.90 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Akhmat home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dynamo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 25% / 28% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.90 goals for Akhmat and 1.33 for Dynamo, a combined 2.23 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 38% and both teams to score at 44%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.3%
- 1–112.9%
- 0–010.8%
- 1–09.7%
- 0–29.5%
Recent form
Akhmat
- 2026-09-17T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Akron · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Makhachkala · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-07T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Rubin · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-03T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Dynamo · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Krylia Sovetov · 3-3 (D)
Dynamo
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Rodina Moskva · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-17T15:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Rostov · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T15:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Orenburg · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Spartak Moscow · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-03T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Akhmat · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Dynamo win, at 46.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.