Akhmat-Arena · Referee Stanislav Matveev, Russia · Analysis updated 13:06 UTC
Akhmat vs Krylia Sovetov Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Akhmat and 1.20 for Krylia Sovetov, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Akhmat the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.8% probability
Expected goals
1.35 – 1.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Akhmat home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Krylia Sovetov away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.6%
- 1–010.5%
- 0–19.4%
- 2–18.5%
- 0–07.8%
Recent form
Akhmat
- 2026-09-17T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Akron · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Makhachkala · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-07T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Rubin · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-03T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Dynamo · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Krylia Sovetov · 3-3 (D)
Krylia Sovetov
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Fakel · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-14T13:15:00.000Z · H vs Baltika · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Spartak Moscow · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-02T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Akron · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-29T17:00:00.000Z · Akhmat 3-3 Krylia Sovetov (Premier League)
- 2026-04-11T11:00:00.000Z · Akhmat 2-2 Krylia Sovetov (Premier League)
- 2025-08-16T17:30:00.000Z · Akhmat 3-1 Krylia Sovetov (Premier League)
- 2024-11-24T11:00:00.000Z · Akhmat 1-2 Krylia Sovetov (Premier League)
- 2024-09-23T15:30:00.000Z · Akhmat 1-1 Krylia Sovetov (Premier League)
- 2024-05-10T13:00:00.000Z · Akhmat 2-0 Krylya Sovetov (Premier League)
- 2023-10-04T09:30:00.000Z · Akhmat 3-0 Krylya Sovetov (Cup)
- 2023-08-30T14:15:00.000Z · Akhmat 3-1 Krylya Sovetov (Cup)
- 2023-07-22T17:00:00.000Z · Akhmat 1-2 Krylya Sovetov (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dynamo | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 25 |
| 2 | Zenit | 11 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 24 |
| 3 | FC Krasnodar | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 23 |
| 4 | Spartak Moscow | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 23 |
| 5 | CSKA Moscow | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 22 |
| 6 | FC Orenburg | 12 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 16 |
| 7 | Krylia Sovetov | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 8 | Baltika | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 14 |
| 9 | Dinamo Makhachkala | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 13 |
| 10 | FC Rostov | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 12 |
| 11 | Rubin | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | -6 | 12 |
| 12 | Akron | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | -6 | 12 |
| 13 | Lokomotiv | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 11 |
| 14 | Akhmat | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -2 | 11 |
| 15 | Rodina Moskva | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -14 | 9 |
| 16 | Fakel | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | -12 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.