Akhmat-Arena · Analysis updated 04:34 UTC
Akhmat vs Rodina Moskva Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.10 expected goals for Akhmat and 1.10 for Rodina Moskva, a combined total of 3.20. That distribution gives Akhmat the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Akhmat win
60.2% probability
Expected goals
2.10 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Akhmat home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Rodina Moskva away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Akhmat to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 60% / 21% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.10 goals for Akhmat and 1.10 for Rodina Moskva, a combined 3.20 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.9%
- 1–19.4%
- 2–09.0%
- 1–08.6%
- 3–16.9%
Recent form
Akhmat
- 2026-09-17T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Akron · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Makhachkala · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-07T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Rubin · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-03T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Dynamo · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Krylia Sovetov · 3-3 (D)
Rodina Moskva
- 2026-10-15T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Spartak Moscow · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-11T13:30:00.000Z · A vs CSKA Moscow · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Dynamo · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Partizan · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-16T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Rubin · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zenit | 12 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 27 |
| 2 | Dynamo | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 25 |
| 3 | CSKA Moscow | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 25 |
| 4 | FC Krasnodar | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 23 |
| 5 | Spartak Moscow | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 23 |
| 6 | FC Orenburg | 12 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 16 |
| 7 | FC Rostov | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 15 |
| 8 | Krylia Sovetov | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 9 | Baltika | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 14 |
| 10 | Dinamo Makhachkala | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | -7 | 13 |
| 11 | Rubin | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | -6 | 12 |
| 12 | Akron | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | -6 | 12 |
| 13 | Lokomotiv | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 11 |
| 14 | Akhmat | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -2 | 11 |
| 15 | Rodina Moskva | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -14 | 9 |
| 16 | Fakel | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | -12 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Akhmat win, at 60.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.