· Analysis updated 22:29 UTC
Åkra vs Flekkerøy Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.31 expected goals for Åkra and 2.64 for Flekkerøy, a combined total of 3.95. That distribution gives Flekkerøy the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Flekkerøy win
65.8% probability
Expected goals
1.31 – 2.64
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Flekkerøy away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Flekkerøy to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 17% / 17% / 66% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.31 goals for Åkra and 2.64 for Flekkerøy, a combined 3.95 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 75% and both teams to score at 68%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
34%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
83%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.8%
- 1–37.7%
- 0–26.7%
- 1–16.6%
- 0–35.9%
Recent form
Åkra
Flekkerøy
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vindbjart · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stabæk II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Varhaug · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mandalskameratene · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Madla · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. Division - Girone 4 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Madla | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 30 | 45 |
| 2 | Mandalskameratene | 22 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 43 |
| 3 | Flekkerøy | 22 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 39 |
| 4 | Vindbjart | 22 | 12 | 2 | 8 | 24 | 38 |
| 5 | Varhaug | 22 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 36 |
| 6 | Viking II | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 19 | 32 |
| 7 | Stabæk II | 22 | 9 | 3 | 10 | -2 | 30 |
| 8 | Brodd | 22 | 9 | 3 | 10 | -2 | 30 |
| 9 | Våg | 22 | 9 | 2 | 11 | -3 | 29 |
| 10 | Staal Jørpeland | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | -9 | 26 |
| 11 | Odd II | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | -11 | 26 |
| 12 | Hinna | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | -21 | 23 |
| 13 | Haugesund II | 22 | 6 | 4 | 12 | -23 | 22 |
| 14 | Åkra | 22 | 4 | 3 | 15 | -39 | 15 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Flekkerøy win, at 65.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.