· Analysis updated 15:01 UTC
Åkra vs Stabæk II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.57 expected goals for Åkra and 2.68 for Stabæk II, a combined total of 4.25. That distribution gives Stabæk II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Stabæk II win
61.1% probability
Expected goals
1.57 – 2.68
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Åkra home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Stabæk II away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Stabæk II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 21% / 18% / 61% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.57 goals for Åkra and 2.68 for Stabæk II, a combined 4.25 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
39%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.0%
- 1–37.2%
- 2–26.3%
- 1–16.0%
- 2–35.6%
Recent form
Åkra
- 2026-10-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Haugesund II · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Mandalskameratene · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Madla · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Hinna · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-14T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Odd II · 1-2 (L)
Stabæk II
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mandalskameratene · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Haugesund II · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Flekkerøy · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-21T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Odd II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Vindbjart · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. Division - Girone 4 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Madla | 23 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 32 | 48 |
| 2 | Mandalskameratene | 23 | 13 | 4 | 6 | 20 | 43 |
| 3 | Flekkerøy | 23 | 12 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 39 |
| 4 | Vindbjart | 23 | 12 | 2 | 9 | 20 | 38 |
| 5 | Varhaug | 23 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 36 |
| 6 | Viking II | 23 | 10 | 5 | 8 | 23 | 35 |
| 7 | Brodd | 23 | 10 | 3 | 10 | 2 | 33 |
| 8 | Stabæk II | 23 | 10 | 3 | 10 | -1 | 33 |
| 9 | Våg | 23 | 10 | 2 | 11 | 1 | 32 |
| 10 | Odd II | 23 | 8 | 5 | 10 | -10 | 29 |
| 11 | Staal Jørpeland | 23 | 7 | 5 | 11 | -13 | 26 |
| 12 | Haugesund II | 23 | 7 | 4 | 12 | -21 | 25 |
| 13 | Hinna | 23 | 6 | 5 | 12 | -25 | 23 |
| 14 | Åkra | 23 | 4 | 3 | 16 | -41 | 15 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Stabæk II win, at 61.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.