Stelios Kyriakides Stadium · Referee A. Culina · Analysis updated 15:31 UTC
Akritas vs AEL Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.44 expected goals for Akritas and 1.37 for AEL, a combined total of 2.81. That distribution gives Akritas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.1% probability
Expected goals
1.44 – 1.37
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Akritas home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
AEL away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Akritas to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 25% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.44 goals for Akritas and 1.37 for AEL, a combined 2.81 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.9%
- 1–08.7%
- 2–18.5%
- 0–18.3%
- 1–28.2%
Recent form
Akritas
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs ASIL Lysi · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Ermis · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-14T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Enosis · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-05-15T16:00:00.000Z · H vs AEL · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-09T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Omonia Aradippou · 1-2 (L)
AEL
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Omonia 29is Maiou · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Pafos · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Nea Salamis · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Apoel Nicosia · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Anorthosis · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AEK Larnaca | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 12 |
| 2 | AEL | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12 |
| 3 | Omonia Nicosia | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 11 |
| 4 | Pafos | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 5 | Apollon Limassol | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 6 | Aris | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 8 |
| 7 | Apoel Nicosia | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 |
| 8 | Omonia Aradippou | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 9 | Omonia 29is Maiou | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 10 | Olympiakos | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 11 | Nea Salamis | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 4 |
| 12 | Karmiotissa | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -6 | 3 |
| 13 | Anorthosis | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 3 |
| 14 | Krasava Ypsonas | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -10 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.