· Analysis updated 01:51 UTC
Akron II vs Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.33 expected goals for Akron II and 1.43 for Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod, a combined total of 3.75. That distribution gives Akron II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Akron II win
57.6% probability
Expected goals
2.33 – 1.43
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Akron II home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Akron II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 20% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.33 goals for Akron II and 1.43 for Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod, a combined 3.75 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.1%
- 1–17.8%
- 3–17.0%
- 2–26.5%
- 2–06.4%
Recent form
Akron II
- 2026-10-25T09:00:00.000Z · A vs KDV · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Khimik Dzerzhinsk · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Krylya Sovetov II · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Barnaul · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · H vs KDV · 0-1 (L)
Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod
- 2026-09-25T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Barnaul · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · A vs KDV · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Khimik Dzerzhinsk · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Krylya Sovetov II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Akron II · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-30T10:00:00.000Z · Akron II 2-3 Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod (Second League - Group 4)
- 2026-08-09T10:00:00.000Z · Akron II 7-2 Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod (Second League - Group 4)
- 2026-05-31T12:00:00.000Z · Akron II 3-1 Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod (Second League - Group 4)
Second League - Group 4 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khimik Dzerzhinsk | 22 | 18 | 2 | 2 | 41 | 56 |
| 2 | KDV | 22 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 53 |
| 3 | Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod | 22 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 18 | 43 |
| 4 | Akron II | 22 | 10 | 2 | 10 | 12 | 32 |
| 5 | Krylya Sovetov II | 22 | 6 | 9 | 7 | -1 | 27 |
| 6 | Dinamo Barnaul | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | -19 | 26 |
| 7 | Orenburg II | 22 | 6 | 8 | 8 | -4 | 26 |
| 8 | Izhevsk | 22 | 5 | 8 | 9 | -2 | 23 |
| 9 | Ural II | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | -10 | 22 |
| 10 | Rubin Kazan 2 | 22 | 4 | 8 | 10 | -10 | 20 |
| 11 | Nosta | 22 | 4 | 6 | 12 | -28 | 18 |
| 12 | Chelyabinsk II | 22 | 4 | 5 | 13 | -17 | 17 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Akron II win, at 57.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.