· Analysis updated 13:49 UTC
Aksakovo vs Chernomorets Balchik Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Aksakovo and 2.15 for Chernomorets Balchik, a combined total of 3.60. That distribution gives Chernomorets Balchik the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Chernomorets Balchik win
53.6% probability
Expected goals
1.45 – 2.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Aksakovo home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Chernomorets Balchik away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Chernomorets Balchik to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 26% / 21% / 54% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.45 goals for Aksakovo and 2.15 for Chernomorets Balchik, a combined 3.60 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
46%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.1%
- 1–18.5%
- 2–26.6%
- 1–36.6%
- 0–26.3%
Recent form
Aksakovo
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Svetkavitsa 14 · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Olympic Varna · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Cherno more II · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Chernomorets Balchik · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-29T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Chernolomets 1919 · 1-1 (D)
Chernomorets Balchik
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Benkovski Isperih · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Volov Shumen · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Etar Veliko Tarnovo · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Svetkavitsa 14 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Botev Novi Pazar · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Third League - Northeast table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ludogorets III | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 19 |
| 2 | Chernolomets 1919 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 17 |
| 3 | Chernomorets Balchik | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 17 |
| 4 | Volov Shumen | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 16 |
| 5 | Svetkavitsa 14 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 16 |
| 6 | Benkovski Isperih | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 7 | Cherno more II | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | Septemvri Tervel | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 9 | Devnya 2005 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 10 |
| 10 | Riltzi | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 10 |
| 11 | Botev Novi Pazar | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| 12 | Olympic Varna | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 9 |
| 13 | Septemvri Dragoevo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 14 | Aksakovo | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 7 |
| 15 | Fratria II | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -16 | 7 |
| 16 | Ustrem Donchevo | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -12 | 4 |
| 17 | Dorostol | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -14 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Chernomorets Balchik win, at 53.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.