· Analysis updated 08:55 UTC
Akşehirspor vs Bursa Yıldırımspor Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.68 expected goals for Akşehirspor and 1.83 for Bursa Yıldırımspor, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Bursa Yıldırımspor the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Bursa Yıldırımspor win
64.9% probability
Expected goals
0.68 – 1.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bursa Yıldırımspor away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bursa Yıldırımspor to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 13% / 22% / 65% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.68 goals for Akşehirspor and 1.83 for Bursa Yıldırımspor, a combined 2.50 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 46% and both teams to score at 41%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
35%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
87%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–115.0%
- 0–213.7%
- 1–110.1%
- 1–29.2%
- 0–38.3%
Recent form
Akşehirspor
- 2019-08-28T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Somaspor · 1-1 (D)
Bursa Yıldırımspor
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Alanya 1221 FK · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-07T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Amasyaspor 1968 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Bucaspor 1928 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Nilüfer Belediye · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Karsiyaka · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. Lig - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nilüfer Belediye | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 17 |
| 2 | Bursa Yıldırımspor | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 15 |
| 3 | Eskişehirspor | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 14 |
| 4 | Bigaspor | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 14 |
| 5 | Etimesgut SK | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 14 |
| 6 | Ayvalikgucu | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 7 | Balıkesirspor | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 13 |
| 8 | Anadolu Üniversitesi | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 12 |
| 9 | Karsiyaka | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Gaziemirspor | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 9 |
| 11 | Altay | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 9 |
| 12 | Söke 1970 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 13 | Uşak Spor | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 14 | Bucaspor 1928 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 6 |
| 15 | Alanya 1221 FK | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -12 | 4 |
| 16 | Denizli İYG | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -10 | 3 |
| 17 | Akşehirspor | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -13 | 3 |
| 18 | Kepezspor | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bursa Yıldırımspor win, at 64.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.