Aktobe Jas vs Astana II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.03 expected goals for Aktobe Jas and 2.60 for Astana II, a combined total of 4.63. That distribution gives Astana II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 84% for over 2.5 goals and 80% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Astana II win

50.9% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.03 – 2.60

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Aktobe Jas home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Astana II away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 6 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Aktobe Jas win31%

Draw19%

Astana II win51%

Double chance 1X

49%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

70%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals94%

Over 2.5 goals84%

Over 3.5 goals68%

Both teams to score80%

Correct score

2–26.8%
1–26.7%
2–35.9%
1–35.8%
2–15.2%

Recent form

Aktobe Jas

2026-10-22T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Astana II · 3-6 (L)
2026-10-15T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Khan Tengri · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-08T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Tobol 2 · 4-4 (D)
2026-09-17T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Arys · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Turan Turkistan · 1-3 (L)

Astana II

2026-10-22T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Aktobe Jas · 6-3 (W)
2026-10-15T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Yelimay Semey 2 · 7-1 (W)
2026-10-08T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Kaspij Aktau 2 · 0-6 (L)
2026-09-18T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Ekibastuz · 7-1 (W)
2026-09-10T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Sport Academy Kairat · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-10-22T09:00:00.000Z · Aktobe Jas 3-6 Astana II (1. Division)
2026-04-03T12:00:00.000Z · Aktobe Jas 2-2 Astana II (1. Division)
2023-10-31T09:00:00.000Z · Aktobe Jas 4-1 Astana II (1. Division)
2023-04-07T13:00:00.000Z · Aktobe Jas 3-2 Astana II (1. Division)
2019-07-27T12:00:00.000Z · Aktobe Jas 1-1 Astana II (1. Division)
2019-04-15T09:00:00.000Z · Aktobe Jas 1-4 Astana II (1. Division)

1. Division table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Shakhter Karagandy	26	21	2	3	56	65
2	Sport Academy Kairat	26	19	6	1	57	63
3	Turan Turkistan	26	18	3	5	33	57
4	Akademiya Ontustik	26	13	4	9	4	43
5	Astana II	26	12	3	11	2	39
6	Taraz	26	10	7	9	4	37
7	Arys	26	10	3	13	-11	33
8	Jaiyq	26	9	5	12	-9	32
9	Khan Tengri	26	9	5	12	-13	32
10	Kaspij Aktau 2	26	8	4	14	-12	28
11	Ekibastuz	26	7	6	13	-25	27
12	Aktobe Jas	26	6	6	14	-35	24
13	Tobol 2	26	6	5	15	-13	23
14	Yelimay Semey 2	26	3	3	20	-38	12

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Astana II win, at 50.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 80% and over 2.5 goals at 84%.

A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.