King Abdullah Sports City · Referee Sami Al Jires, Saudi Arabia · Analysis updated 15:10 UTC
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Abha Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.79 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 0.86 for Abha, a combined total of 3.65. That distribution gives Al-Ahli Jeddah the largest share of the 1X2 market at 77%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 77% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al-Ahli Jeddah win
77.4% probability
Expected goals
2.79 – 0.86
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al-Ahli Jeddah home form
7 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Abha away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
91%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
23%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.1%
- 3–09.4%
- 2–18.7%
- 3–18.1%
- 1–07.3%
Recent form
Al-Ahli Jeddah
- 2026-10-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Al-Wasl FC · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-09T14:55:00.000Z · A vs Al-Fateh · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mamelodi Sundowns · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Pakhtakor · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Hazm · 3-1 (W)
Abha
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Diriyah · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Al-Nassr · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Ettifaq · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-28T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Al-Fayha · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-25T16:05:00.000Z · H vs Al Khaleej Saihat · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-22T18:00:00.000Z · Al-Ahli Jeddah 4-0 Abha (Pro League)
- 2024-05-18T18:00:00.000Z · Al-Ahli Jeddah 5-1 Abha (Pro League)
- 2023-11-30T15:00:00.000Z · Al-Ahli Jeddah 6-0 Abha (Pro League)
- 2023-10-31T18:00:00.000Z · Al-Ahli Jeddah 1-2 Abha (King's Cup)
- 2022-05-22T18:00:00.000Z · Al-Ahli Jeddah 1-1 Abha (Pro League)
- 2021-11-21T11:30:00.000Z · Al-Ahli Jeddah 0-2 Abha (Pro League)
- 2021-05-25T18:00:00.000Z · Al-Ahli Jeddah 1-1 Abha (Pro League)
- 2021-01-19T16:10:00.000Z · Al-Ahli Jeddah 3-0 Abha (Pro League)
- 2020-09-04T17:35:00.000Z · Al-Ahli Jeddah 1-2 Abha (Pro League)
- 2020-01-13T16:05:00.000Z · Al-Ahli Jeddah 3-1 Abha (Pro League)
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 22 |
| 2 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 21 |
| 3 | Al-Nassr | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 19 |
| 4 | Al-Ittihad FC | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 17 |
| 5 | NEOM | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 16 |
| 6 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 15 |
| 7 | Al-Ettifaq | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 15 |
| 8 | Al Diriyah | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 9 | Al Kholood | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 12 |
| 10 | Al Khaleej Saihat | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | -4 | 12 |
| 11 | Al-Hazm | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 9 |
| 12 | Al Riyadh | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -8 | 9 |
| 13 | Al Shabab | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 14 | Al-Fayha | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 15 | Al-Faisaly FC | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 16 | Al-Fateh | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -11 | 6 |
| 17 | Al Taawon | 9 | 0 | 4 | 5 | -12 | 4 |
| 18 | Abha | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al-Ahli Jeddah win, at 77.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 77% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.