King Abdullah Sports City · Analysis updated 21:25 UTC
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Faisaly FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.20 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 1.04 for Al-Faisaly FC, a combined total of 4.24. That distribution gives Al-Ahli Jeddah the largest share of the 1X2 market at 79%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 79% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Al-Ahli Jeddah win
79.1% probability
Expected goals
3.20 – 1.04
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al-Ahli Jeddah home form
7 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al-Ahli Jeddah to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 79%, against 79% / 12% / 9% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.20 goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 1.04 for Al-Faisaly FC, a combined 4.24 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 79% and both teams to score at 62%, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
91%
Double chance 12
88%
Double chance X2
21%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–18.2%
- 3–07.9%
- 2–17.7%
- 2–07.4%
- 4–16.5%
Recent form
Al-Ahli Jeddah
- 2026-10-19T15:05:00.000Z · A vs Al-Fayha · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Al-Wasl FC · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-09T14:55:00.000Z · A vs Al-Fateh · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mamelodi Sundowns · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Pakhtakor · 1-1 (D)
Al-Faisaly FC
- 2026-10-23T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Al-Nassr · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Shabab · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-15T13:40:00.000Z · H vs Al Kholood · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-11T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Al-Ittihad FC · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-08T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Al-Ettifaq · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 27 |
| 2 | Al-Nassr | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 25 |
| 3 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 25 |
| 4 | Al-Ittihad FC | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 23 |
| 5 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 21 |
| 6 | NEOM | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 19 |
| 7 | Al-Ettifaq | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 8 | Al Diriyah | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 15 |
| 9 | Al Kholood | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 12 |
| 10 | Al Khaleej Saihat | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | -7 | 12 |
| 11 | Al Riyadh | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 12 |
| 12 | Al Shabab | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 13 | Al-Hazm | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 10 |
| 14 | Al-Fayha | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 15 | Al-Faisaly FC | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 16 | Al-Fateh | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -13 | 6 |
| 17 | Al Taawon | 11 | 0 | 4 | 7 | -14 | 4 |
| 18 | Abha | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | -11 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al-Ahli Jeddah win, at 79.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.
A 79% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.