Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Gharafa Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.02 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 1.14 for Al-Gharafa, a combined total of 3.16. That distribution gives Al-Ahli Jeddah the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Al-Ahli Jeddah win

57.8% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.02 – 1.14

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Al-Ahli Jeddah home form
7 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Al-Gharafa away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al-Ahli Jeddah to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 21% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.02 goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 1.14 for Al-Gharafa, a combined 3.16 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Al-Ahli Jeddah win58%

Draw21%

Al-Gharafa win21%

Double chance 1X

79%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

42%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals82%

Over 2.5 goals61%

Over 3.5 goals39%

Both teams to score59%

Correct score

2–19.9%
1–19.8%
2–08.7%
1–08.6%
3–16.7%

Recent form

Al-Ahli Jeddah

2026-10-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Al-Wasl FC · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-09T14:55:00.000Z · A vs Al-Fateh · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mamelodi Sundowns · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-14T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Pakhtakor · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Hazm · 3-1 (W)

Al-Gharafa

2026-10-08T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Wakrah · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-01T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Mesaimeer · 4-2 (W)
2026-09-15T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lusail City · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-05T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Al Sadd · 1-4 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

AFC Champions League Elite table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Al Ain	2	2	0	0	7	6
2	Esteghlal FC	2	2	0	0	4	6
3	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	2	2	0	0	3	6
4	Shabab Al Ahli Dubai	2	2	0	0	2	6
5	Al-Ahli Jeddah	2	1	1	0	2	4
6	Al-Qadisiyah FC	2	1	1	0	1	4
7	Neftchi	2	1	0	1	-1	3
8	Al-Nassr	2	1	0	1	-2	3
9	Pakhtakor	2	0	2	0	0	2
10	Al Shamal	2	0	2	0	0	2
11	Al-Ittihad FC	2	0	1	1	-1	1
12	Tractor Sazi	2	0	1	1	-1	1
13	Al-Gharafa	2	0	0	2	-2	0
14	Al-Wasl FC	2	0	0	2	-3	0
15	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	2	0	0	2	-4	0
16	Al Sadd	2	0	0	2	-5	0
1	Kashima	2	2	0	0	7	6
2	Gamba Osaka	2	2	0	0	5	6
3	Vissel Kobe	2	2	0	0	3	6
4	Beijing Guoan	2	2	0	0	3	6
5	SHANGHAI SIPG	2	1	1	0	2	4
6	Johor Darul Takzim FC	2	1	1	0	2	4
7	Daejeon Citizen	2	1	1	0	1	4
8	Kashiwa Reysol	2	1	0	1	3	3
9	Kyoto Sanga	2	1	0	1	0	3
10	Jeonbuk Motors	2	1	0	1	-1	3
11	Buriram United	2	0	1	1	-1	1
12	Ratchaburi	2	0	0	2	-3	0
13	Công An Nhân Dân	2	0	0	2	-4	0
14	Pohang Steelers	2	0	0	2	-4	0
15	Port FC	2	0	0	2	-5	0
16	Newcastle Jets	2	0	0	2	-8	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Al-Ahli Jeddah win, at 57.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.

A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.