· Analysis updated 10:15 UTC
Al Ahli vs Al-Hidd Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.16 expected goals for Al Ahli and 0.87 for Al-Hidd, a combined total of 2.04. That distribution gives Al Ahli the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 33% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
72.5% probability
Expected goals
1.16 – 0.87
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al Ahli home form
1 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Ahli to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 30% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.16 goals for Al Ahli and 0.87 for Al-Hidd, a combined 2.04 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 33% and both teams to score at 40%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.2%
- 1–113.3%
- 0–013.1%
- 0–111.4%
- 2–08.8%
Recent form
Al Ahli
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Ittifaq Maqaba · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Al-Hidd · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-28T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Muharraq · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-15T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Budaiya · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Hidd · 0-1 (L)
Al-Hidd
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 72.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 33%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.