· Analysis updated 13:35 UTC
Al Ahli vs Al Riffa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.95 expected goals for Al Ahli and 1.15 for Al Riffa, a combined total of 2.10. That distribution gives Al Riffa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
70.0% probability
Expected goals
0.95 – 1.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al Ahli home form
1 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Riffa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 30% / 30% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.95 goals for Al Ahli and 1.15 for Al Riffa, a combined 2.10 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 35% and both teams to score at 42%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.1%
- 1–113.4%
- 0–012.2%
- 1–011.6%
- 0–28.1%
Recent form
Al Ahli
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Ittifaq Maqaba · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Al-Hidd · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-28T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Muharraq · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-15T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Budaiya · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Hidd · 0-1 (L)
Al Riffa
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 70.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.