· Analysis updated 15:47 UTC
Al Ahli vs Al Salt Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.95 expected goals for Al Ahli and 1.60 for Al Salt, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Al Salt the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al Salt win
52.6% probability
Expected goals
0.95 – 1.60
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al Ahli home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Al Salt away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
47%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–112.5%
- 1–111.9%
- 0–210.0%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–07.8%
Recent form
Al Ahli
- 2026-10-09T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sama · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Wihdat · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Buqa'a · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-24T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Al Faisaly · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-04-14T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sama Al Sarhan · 3-2 (W)
Al Salt
- 2026-05-07T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Jazeera · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Wihdat · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Buqa'a · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-04-21T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Wihdat · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-04-17T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Faisaly · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-12T19:00:00.000Z · Al Ahli 1-1 Al Salt (League)
- 2026-02-12T14:00:00.000Z · Al Ahli 1-1 Al Salt (League)
- 2025-10-12T14:00:00.000Z · Al Ahli 0-0 Al Salt (Shield Cup)
- 2025-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · Al Ahli 0-2 Al Salt (League)
- 2025-02-21T14:00:00.000Z · Al Ahli 0-2 Al Salt (League)
- 2024-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · Al Ahli 0-0 Al Salt (Shield Cup)
- 2024-08-21T15:00:00.000Z · Al Ahli 2-0 Al Salt (League)
- 2024-05-15T15:00:00.000Z · Al Ahli 1-4 Al Salt (League)
- 2023-12-09T13:00:00.000Z · Al Ahli 1-0 Al Salt (League)
- 2023-07-01T15:00:00.000Z · Al Ahli 1-2 Al Salt (Shield Cup)
League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Faisaly | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 13 |
| 2 | Al Jazeera | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 8 |
| 3 | Al Wihdat | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| 4 | Al Buqa'a | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 5 | Al Ramtha | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 8 |
| 6 | Al Salt | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 7 | Al Hussein | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 5 |
| 8 | Al Arabi | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 9 | Doqarah | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 10 | Shabab Al Ordon | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al Salt win, at 52.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.