· Analysis updated 13:46 UTC
Al Ahly vs Olympic El Qanah Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.28 expected goals for Al Ahly and 0.95 for Olympic El Qanah, a combined total of 2.22. That distribution gives Al Ahly the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
72.3% probability
Expected goals
1.28 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al Ahly home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Olympic El Qanah away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Ahly to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 28% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.28 goals for Al Ahly and 0.95 for Olympic El Qanah, a combined 2.22 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.8%
- 1–113.1%
- 0–010.8%
- 0–110.3%
- 2–08.8%
Recent form
Al Ahly
- 2026-10-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Zamalek SC · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-07T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Asyut Petrol · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Abu Qair Semad · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs El Mokawloon · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-03T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Smouha SC · 1-0 (W)
Olympic El Qanah
- 2026-08-28T14:00:00.000Z · H vs El Gouna FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-23T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Ceramica Cleopatra · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-14T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Dayrout · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-05-07T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Proxy · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-30T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Aswan Sc · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pyramids FC | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 2 | Al Ahly | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 16 |
| 3 | Zamalek SC | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 4 | Future FC | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 5 | Al Ittihad | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 6 | Ceramica Cleopatra | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 12 |
| 7 | National Bank of Egypt | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 8 | El Mokawloon | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 9 | Petrojet | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 10 | Masr | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 11 | Olympic El Qanah | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 | AL Masry | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Smouha SC | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 14 | El Geish | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 | Wadi Degla | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 16 | Asyut Petrol | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 17 | Enppi | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 18 | Abu Qair Semad | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 3 |
| 19 | El Gouna FC | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
| 20 | Ghazl El Mehalla | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 72.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.