Al Ahly vs Smouha SC Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Al Ahly and 0.95 for Smouha SC, a combined total of 2.15. That distribution gives Al Ahly the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

70.9% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.20 – 0.95

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Al Ahly home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Smouha SC away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Ahly to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 29% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.20 goals for Al Ahly and 0.95 for Smouha SC, a combined 2.15 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Al Ahly win42%

Draw29%

Smouha SC win29%

Double chance 1X

71%

Double chance 12

71%

Double chance X2

58%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals63%

Over 2.5 goals36%

Over 3.5 goals17%

Both teams to score43%

Correct score

1–014.0%
1–113.3%
0–011.6%
0–111.1%
2–08.4%

Recent form

Al Ahly

2026-10-21T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Olympic El Qanah · 3-3 (D)
2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kitara · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Zamalek SC · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-07T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Asyut Petrol · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Abu Qair Semad · 2-0 (W)

Smouha SC

2026-10-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Ghazl El Mehalla · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-14T14:00:00.000Z · A vs El Geish · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-08T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Ceramica Cleopatra · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-03T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Ahly · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Asyut Petrol · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Pyramids FC	7	7	0	0	14	21
2	Al Ahly	7	5	2	0	8	17
3	Zamalek SC	7	5	1	1	6	16
4	Ceramica Cleopatra	7	5	0	2	6	15
5	Future FC	7	4	1	2	3	13
6	Al Ittihad	7	4	1	2	3	13
7	El Mokawloon	7	3	2	2	4	11
8	Masr	7	3	2	2	0	11
9	National Bank of Egypt	7	3	1	3	0	10
10	Smouha SC	7	3	1	3	0	10
11	Olympic El Qanah	7	1	5	1	0	8
12	Petrojet	7	2	2	3	-2	8
13	AL Masry	7	2	2	3	-2	8
14	Wadi Degla	7	1	4	2	-1	7
15	El Geish	7	2	1	4	-6	7
16	Asyut Petrol	7	1	2	4	-4	5
17	Enppi	7	1	1	5	-7	4
18	Ghazl El Mehalla	7	1	1	5	-8	4
19	Abu Qair Semad	7	1	1	5	-8	4
20	El Gouna FC	7	0	2	5	-6	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.

A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.