Cairo International Stadium · Referee A. Omar · Analysis updated 13:17 UTC
Al Ahly vs Smouha SC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.41 expected goals for Al Ahly and 0.45 for Smouha SC, a combined total of 1.86. That distribution gives Al Ahly the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 27% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 22%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al Ahly win
61.2% probability
Expected goals
1.41 – 0.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al Ahly home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Smouha SC away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Ahly to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 27% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.41 goals for Al Ahly and 0.45 for Smouha SC, a combined 1.86 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–022.0%
- 0–015.6%
- 2–015.5%
- 1–19.9%
- 3–07.3%
Recent form
Al Ahly
- 2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Abu Qair Semad · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs El Mokawloon · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-03T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Smouha SC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-28T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Masr · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Enppi · 3-2 (W)
Smouha SC
- 2026-09-14T14:00:00.000Z · A vs El Geish · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-08T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Ceramica Cleopatra · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-03T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Ahly · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Asyut Petrol · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-22T17:00:00.000Z · A vs AL Masry · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pyramids FC | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 15 |
| 2 | Zamalek SC | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 | Al Ahly | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 13 |
| 4 | Ceramica Cleopatra | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 12 |
| 5 | Future FC | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Al Ittihad | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 7 | El Mokawloon | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 8 | Petrojet | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 9 | El Geish | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 | Masr | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 11 | Olympic El Qanah | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 12 | AL Masry | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 13 | National Bank of Egypt | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 14 | Wadi Degla | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 15 | Enppi | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 16 | Smouha SC | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 17 | Abu Qair Semad | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -7 | 3 |
| 18 | El Gouna FC | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 2 |
| 19 | Asyut Petrol | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 2 |
| 20 | Ghazl El Mehalla | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al Ahly win, at 61.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 27% and over 2.5 goals at 28%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.