Tahnoun Bin Mohamed Stadium · Analysis updated 13:30 UTC
Al Ain vs Ajman Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.78 expected goals for Al Ain and 1.42 for Ajman, a combined total of 4.20. That distribution gives Al Ain the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Al Ain win
65.8% probability
Expected goals
2.78 – 1.42
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al Ain home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ajman away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
34%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.2%
- 3–17.6%
- 1–15.9%
- 2–25.9%
- 2–05.8%
Recent form
Al Ain
- 2026-10-02T13:15:00.000Z · H vs Ajman · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Al-Wasl FC · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-15T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Nassr · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-10T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Al-Wasl FC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-04T13:45:00.000Z · A vs Al-Ittihad Kalba · 2-0 (W)
Ajman
- 2026-09-19T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Sharjah FC · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-11T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Al-Ittihad Kalba · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:45:00.000Z · A vs Al Nasr · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T13:55:00.000Z · A vs Al-Jazira · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hatta SC · 4-3 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-05T16:30:00.000Z · Al Ain 2-0 Ajman (Pro League)
- 2025-10-30T15:45:00.000Z · Al Ain 3-0 Ajman (Pro League)
- 2025-05-19T14:10:00.000Z · Al Ain 0-0 Ajman (Pro League)
- 2025-01-15T13:05:00.000Z · Al Ain 2-4 Ajman (Pro League)
- 2024-03-15T18:00:00.000Z · Al Ain 4-0 Ajman (Pro League)
- 2023-09-23T16:00:00.000Z · Al Ain 6-0 Ajman (Pro League)
- 2023-01-27T13:15:00.000Z · Al Ain 5-1 Ajman (Pro League)
- 2022-09-02T13:45:00.000Z · Al Ain 1-1 Ajman (Pro League)
- 2022-05-22T14:15:00.000Z · Al Ain 4-0 Ajman (Pro League)
- 2021-12-30T13:00:00.000Z · Al Ain 2-1 Ajman (Pro League)
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Jazira | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 13 |
| 2 | Al Ain | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 4 | Al-Wasl FC | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 10 |
| 5 | Ajman | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 6 | Al Wahda FC | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 7 | Sharjah FC | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 9 |
| 8 | Dubai United | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 9 | Al Nasr | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 10 | Al-Ittihad Kalba | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 4 |
| 11 | Khorfakkan | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 4 |
| 12 | Al-Dhafra | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 3 |
| 13 | Hatta SC | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 3 |
| 14 | Baniyas SC | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al Ain win, at 65.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.