· Analysis updated 05:11 UTC
Al Akhaa Al Ahli vs Jwaaya FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.68 expected goals for Al Akhaa Al Ahli and 2.38 for Jwaaya FC, a combined total of 3.06. That distribution gives Jwaaya FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 75%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 75% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Jwaaya FC win
75.2% probability
Expected goals
0.68 – 2.38
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Jwaaya FC away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Jwaaya FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 75%, against 9% / 16% / 75% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.68 goals for Al Akhaa Al Ahli and 2.38 for Jwaaya FC, a combined 3.06 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 59% and both teams to score at 45%, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
25%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
91%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–213.3%
- 0–111.2%
- 0–310.6%
- 1–29.0%
- 1–17.6%
Recent form
Al Akhaa Al Ahli
Jwaaya FC
- 2026-08-01T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Al Ahed · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-28T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Al Ansar · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-24T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Al Nejmeh · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-20T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Al Ahed · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-16T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Al Ansar · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jwaaya FC | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 12 |
| 2 | Tadamon Sour | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 10 |
| 3 | Safa | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 4 | Al Ahed | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| 5 | Tripoli SC | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 6 | Al Nejmeh | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 7 | Al Ansar | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Al Mabarrah | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 9 | Al Hikma | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 1 |
| 10 | Reyady Abaseya | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
| 11 | Shabab Al Sahel | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 0 |
| 12 | Al Akhaa Al Ahli | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Jwaaya FC win, at 75.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.